Fantasy Football Sleepers Breakouts and Busts

By: Jason Gandhi, Joe Marra, Dan Magers, Michael Bailey, and Dylan Stagge

Sleeper- someone who we think will exceed expectations and their ADP (average draft position) is lower than it should be

Bust- someone who we think will not live up to the expectations and their ADP

Breakout- A player who will leap into or close to the upper tier of players at his position for the first time because of a dramatic increase in production compared to his previous seasons (or in his rookie season).



The Sportz Sermon Breakouts
Jason Gandhi Blake Bortles
Dan Magers  Golden Tate
Dylan Stagge Latavius Murray


Golden Tate- Golden Tate had plenty of receptions last year but didn’t put up great stats to make a statement in fantasy. This year should be much different though. Calvin Johnson took up most of the receiving this past year, but with him retiring, Tate should see a major jump in targets. So you should be seeing the Golden Domer and 2009 Biletnikoff award winner putting up a lot more points as the number 1 target in Detroit.

Blake Bortles- A ROUGH rookie year scared a lot of Jacksonville fans away from Blake Bortles as their franchise guy. He would shut them all up quickly improving his QB rating from a 69.5 to an 88.2. His touchdowns also jumped from 11 to 35. So how could he be considered a breakout this year? Well, Bortles will throw 30-40 touchdowns again this year as well as bring down his interceptions dramatically. He will solidify himself as a top 8 fantasy quarterback by the end of the year. If you have the chance, take the #3 pick from 2014, and let Blake Bortles lead your fantasy squad to the playoffs.

Latavius Murray- After quietly putting together a 1,000 yard season rushing the ball last year, Murray has a chance to take his game to the next level. Oakland’s young offense is growing together quickly, and with an improved offensive line, will look to make big strides this year. With not much competition behind him on the Raiders’ depth chart and a solid passing attack to open up rushing lanes, Latavius Murray has a chance to become one of the NFL’s leading rushers in 2016.

Sleepers and Busts: 

Sleeper Bust
Jason Gandhi Blake Bortles Brock Osweiler
Joe Marra Jameis Winston Tony Romo
Michael Bailey Brock Osweiler Joe Flacco
Dan Magers  Marcus Mariota  Kirk Cousins
Dylan Stagge  Jameis Winston  Drew Brees

Jameis Winston- The Bucs have lots of offensive weapons surrounding Jameis. We all know how much quarterbacks can improve from their first year to their second. Jameis coming back to the same great weapons as last year will help him grow a lot. Keep in mind he also had 6 rushing TDs last year, which always for any player in fantasy.

Blake Bortles- Bortles is coming off a hot year and all his weapons are back. Allen Robinson should take another step in his game as well as Bortles. He is destined for greatness on the field and in the your league.

Running Backs
Sleeper Bust
Jason Gandhi Ryan Mathews Devonta Freeman
Joe Marra Jay Ajayi Devonta Freeman
Michael Bailey Dion Lewis Ezekiel Elliott
Dan Magers  Dion Lewis  Thomas Rawls
Dylan Stagge  Ryan Mathews  Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman- Freeman actually lost the starting RB job to Tevin Coleman before last season. He never would have had his insane breakout from Weeks 1-8 if Coleman did not get hurt. Devonta Freeman fell off a cliff from weeks 9-17 when the schedule got tougher, only averaging 3.1 yards per carry and only rushed for 2 touchdowns. There is no way Freeman puts up the same numbers he did in weeks 1-8 next year.

Jay Ajayi- Jay Ajayi the big back out of Boise State is gonna have a great year after Lamar Miller left. We see him getting lots of touches and lots of points for your fantasy team.

Ryan Mathews- When Mathews got chances last year, he delivered for the Eagles, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and rushing for 6 TDs as a backup. With rookie QB Carson Wentz coming in for the Eagles this year, Mathews will be relied on heavily.

Wide Receivers
Sleeper Bust
Jason Gandhi Sterling Shepard Brandon Marshall
Joe Marra Donte Moncrief Allen Hurns
Michael Bailey Stefon Diggs Randall Cobb
Dan Magers  Tyler Boyd  Emmanuel Sanders
Dylan Stagge  Donte Moncrief  Devante Parker

Allen Hurns- We love Allen Hurns but with Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas, Bortles can only throw him the ball so many times. If you want a Jags receiver you want Robinson.

Donte Moncrief- Ranked #30 on our Top 50 WRs, Moncrief should easily outperform expectations this year. He had a solid season as a #3 WR on the Colts last year, putting up 733 receiving yards and 6 TDs without Andrew Luck for most of the season. This year he gets a chance to be the #2 receiver and has lots of big play potential for the Colts

Devante Parker- Parker will have a tough time competing for targets this season with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, and Jordan Cameron also competing for catches. With an average at best QB, Ryan Tannehill, Parker will struggle to find targets and accurate passes to catch this season.

Tight Ends
Sleeper Bust
Jason Gandhi Eric Ebron Tyler Eifert
Joe Marra Jordan Reed Travis Kelce
Michael Bailey Ladarius Green  Vance McDonald
Dan Magers Ladarius Green  Marcellus Bennett
Dylan Stagge  Gary Barnidge Coby Fleener

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